BUY ALLOWED — normal conditions
The trend is intact and price isn't overextended. Adds are permitted at planned size.
All the technical detail
Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · L0 full risk · no short · hold day — nothing critical fired
Confirmation: ×1.0 — ① and ② met
Rules that fired
Nothing fired — hold day. Most days are hold days.
BTC
| BTC close (UTC) | $80.8k | 200DMA $73.0k — gate (a) ✓ |
| BTC weekly vs band | $80.0k | band $76.6k — gate (b) ✓, 10w above |
| BTC stretch vs 20DMA | -1.3% | no new adds >+10% |
| BTC RV30 → vol scalar | 25% | scalar 1.00 (§4) |
| BTC Mayer Multiple | 1.11 | <0.8 accumulate · >1.5 stop core adds (§4) |
| BTC emergency line | $69.4k | daily close below = exit (§4) |
ETH
| ETH close (UTC) | $2.3k | 200DMA $2.2k — gate (a) ✓ |
| ETH weekly vs band | $2.3k | band $2.3k — gate (b) ✓, 10w above |
| ETH stretch vs 20DMA | -3.2% | no new adds >+10% |
| ETH RV30 → vol scalar | 33% | scalar 1.00 (§4) |
Rotation
| ETHBTC vs 200DMA | 0.02897 | SMA 0.02944 — Stage 1 ON (±2% hyst.) |
| BTC.D (top-125 approx) | 59.08% | 20D SMA 58.96% · <58% early-alt · >61% BTC-only |
| TOTAL3 (top-125 approx) | $837B | fail <$700B · watch 5 closes >$800B (streak 11) · trigger ≥$1.13T |
Sentiment & fuel
| Fear & Greed | 51 | actionable only ≤15 / ≥85 (§9 noise filter) |
| Stablecoins total | $301B | Δ7d $-2.1B · rising 0w · new-bull gate: ATH > $322B + 4w |
| USDT / USDC | $181B / $71.2B | USDC growth = the MiCA-venue tailwind |
| AAVE funding | +0.0058%/8h | R1 <-0.01 squeeze · R2 >+0.05 crowded |
| BTC funding | +0.0064%/8h | R1 <-0.01 squeeze · R2 >+0.05 crowded |
| CRV funding | +0.0031%/8h | R1 <-0.01 squeeze · R2 >+0.05 crowded |
| ETH funding | +0.0067%/8h | R1 <-0.01 squeeze · R2 >+0.05 crowded |
| SOL funding | +0.0067%/8h | R1 <-0.01 squeeze · R2 >+0.05 crowded |
Tier A order sheet (§8 pullback · §7 sizing)
| CRV — SKIP | $0.3322 · zone $0.3431–$0.3698 | stop $0.2896 (−19%) · €806 (risk €151) · RS vs BTC 30d +0pp / 90d +36pp · 50D $0.3554 · RV30 90% · 4H needs 4H close > $0.3419 |
| AAVE — SKIP | $132 · zone $144–$154 | stop $126 (−15%) · €978 (risk €151) · RS vs BTC 30d -9pp / 90d +13pp · 50D $150 · RV30 72% · 4H needs 4H close > $135 |
| SOL — SKIP | $101 · zone $103–$108 | stop $94.90 (−10%) · €1,322 (risk €227) · RS vs BTC 30d -13pp / 90d +11pp · 50D $109 · RV30 36% · 4H needs 4H close > $101 |
Downside ladder (§9b)
| Downside level | L0 FULL RISK | Normal sizing per §7. Nothing to do. |
| ↳ raised by | — | nothing — full risk per §7 |
| BTC crowded-funding streak | 0d | sustained at ≥5d (21d history) — §9 overheat ① |
| ETH crowded-funding streak | 0d | sustained at ≥5d (21d history) — §9 overheat ① |
| BTC vs trailing high | -28.4% | high is 364d old — §13 alert ⑦ tripwire at -20% (stale high, not counted) |
| ETH vs trailing high | -41.0% | high is 364d old — §13 alert ⑦ tripwire at -20% (stale high, not counted) |
Short setups (§9b)
S1 · Distribution short (BTC/ETH) —
OFF- ✗ funding ≥ +0.05%/8h for 5d (now 0d)
- ✗ F&G ≥ 85 (now 51)
- • CME basis > 15% annualized — MANUAL
- ✓ TRIGGER: first daily close back below the 20DMA (BTC below 20DMA)
invalidation: daily close back above the pre-trigger swing high
edge: §9 overheat confluence — all three legs required, 0–5w lead
ARMED means the automatable legs are met — leg ③ (CME basis) is still MANUAL and must be confirmed before any size goes on. Short the first lower high after the 20DMA loss, never the extreme itself.
S2 · Trend short (BTC) — bear branch —
OFF- ✗ §4 regime gate OFF (close < 200DMA and/or < band)
- ✗ Mayer < 1.0 (now 1.11)
- ✓ close below 20DMA (no counter-trend bounce)
invalidation: daily close back above the 200DMA
edge: WEAKEST of the four. The §4 backtest was long/flat; adding the short leg to an MA system in an up-drifting asset historically cuts risk-adjusted return. Half size, always.
BLOCKED while the gate is ON. Only after core scale-out has begun — never short the same asset the core is still long.
S3 · Failed-retest short (post-cascade) —
MANUAL- • ≥20% single-day OI purge with ≥4:1 long liqs — MANUAL
- • retest FAILS the §9 2-of-3 re-entry test (funding ≤0 3d avg · basis <5% · F&G ≤15)
- • lower high confirmed on the daily
invalidation: reclaim of the cascade-day open
edge: Oct 10 2025's purge preceded 6 more months of downside (§9)
The §9 post-cascade rule read as a short: if the retest fails its own re-entry test, that failure is the setup.
S4 · Event-driven alt short —
MANUAL- • tier-1 listing just announced — 89% dump post-listing, avg -52% (§8)
- • unlock/dilution signature: 90d mcap change exceeds 90d price change by >10pts (the ONDO pattern, §8)
- • borrow available and liquid; NOT a Tier A holding
invalidation: the event passes without the dump — close, don't average
edge: §8's own disqualifiers, taken as a short thesis
Defined event, defined invalidation, no top-calling required. Never short a name the sleeve is long.
Hard cap: ≤5% of portfolio at risk across ALL shorts, inside the tactical sleeve (§3). Core and stables are never the funding source.
Regime gate ON — S2 (trend short) blocked by rule; S1/S3/S4 stay available as top/event setups.
Smart money — accumulating (Nansen, >$300M, 24h)
no data (keyless or no qualifying flows)
Smart money — distributing
no data (keyless or no qualifying flows)
Regime/sizing confirmation only — never an entry
trigger (edge-data.md). Native BTC/ETH/SOL can't appear here.
History
| Day | Gate B/E | Stage |
BTC | |
|---|
| 10-28 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $80.8k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-27 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $80.0k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-26 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $80.0k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-25 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $80.8k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-24 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $81.1k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-23 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $81.3k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-22 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $84.1k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-21 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $82.9k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-20 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $81.9k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-19 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $82.0k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-18 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $81.4k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-17 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $81.5k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-16 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $82.2k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
| 10-15 | ✓/✓ | 1 | $81.6k | Gate BTC ON · ETH ON · conf ×1 · Stage 1 (ETH overweight) · |
Data health
- ✅ coinalyze: 5 assets, OI-weighted over 20 deepest perp markets
- ✅ coingecko-history: 366 daily points
- ✅ coingecko-markets: BTC 80,553 · BTC.D 59.08%
- ✅ defillama-stables: total 301.5B
- ✅ fear-greed: 51 (Neutral)
- ✅ kraken-tier-a: 3/3 Tier A priced (Kraken)
- ⚠️ nansen: HTTPError HTTP 403